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More importantly, though, it was the Republicans who saw improved performance relative to 2016; in most races since that year, it's been the Democrats who've seen gains. Read more: Two new members join the Florida House after Tuesday's special elections In fact, Florida is one of only a few states where the average shift relative to the 2016 presidential result in the district has been in the Republicans' favor. In most states where the average has been a shift to the Republicans, Hillary Clinton won in 2016. States like Connecticut, Massachusetts and Washington were voting on Donald Trump as a presidential candidate, but generally on more moderate Republicans in the special elections. It's no surprise, therefore, that those Republicans are doing better than Trump did. But Trump won Utah and Florida, two states where the special election results also move to the right. Utah has only had one special election, but it was also the red state that shifted the most away from the Republican candidate between 2012 and 2016 (a function of loving Mitt Romney and being deeply skeptical of Trump). Florida, then, is an outlier. Why? Why is Florida the state that's bucking the blue-wave trend? We spoke with the chair of the University of Florida's political science department, Daniel Smith.
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